- Cryptocurrency and ICO Market Analysis [February 12–18, 2018]
This report was created by:
- Professor Dmitrii Kornilov, Doctor of Economics, Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, and Leading Analyst at ICOBox;
- Dima Zaitsev, PhD in Economics, Head of International Public Relations and Business Analytics Department Chief at ICOBox;
- Nick Evdokimov, Co-Founder of ICOBox;
- Mike Raitsyn, Co-Founder of ICOBox;
- Anar Babaev, Co-Founder of ICOBox;
- Daria Generalova, Co-Founder of ICOBox;
This report presents data on the cryptocurrency and ICO market changes during 2017–2018. Special emphasis has been placed on an analysis of the changes that took place in February 2018, including over the last week (February 12–18, 2018).
1. General cryptocurrency and digital assets market analysis (by week, month, quarter). Market trends.
1.1 General cryptocurrency and digital assets market analysis (by week, month).
Table 1.1. Trends in capitalization of the cryptocurrency market and main cryptocurrencies from January 1, 2017, to February 18, 2018*
Last week (February 12–18, 2018) was characterized by relatively modest growth in cryptocurrency market capitalization from $422.2 to $513.8 billion, i.e. by 21.7% (03:00 UTC).
The Smith + Crown Index for the week increased from 19,894 to 24,799.
The dominance of the four and eight largest cryptocurrencies as of February 18, 2018, equaled 69.3% and 77.3%, respectively, with bitcoin dominance equaling 36.5% (see Table 1.1).
Figure 1. Cryptocurrency market capitalization, February 11–18, 2018
Last week (February 12–18, 2018) total cryptocurrency market capitalization grew by approximately $100 billion, resulting in an increase in the prices of 447 of the top 500 cryptocurrencies and digital assets.
Over the past week the number of cryptocurrencies with a capitalization of more than $1 billion increased from 24 to 29, with the price of all of them increasing over this period. The price of most cryptocurrencies increased over the past week by 10–25%, which is completely understandable and related to overall market trends.
The coins and tokens from the top 500 that demonstrated the largest growth in prices are given in fig. 2.
The growth and fall of cryptocurrency prices over the past week (February 12–18, 2018)
The prices of some cryptocurrencies may fluctuate from -50% to +50% over the course of a single day. Therefore, when analyzing cryptocurrency price trends, it is advisable to use their average daily amounts on various cryptoexchanges.
Below we consider the top 10 cryptocurrencies that showed the largest change in price over the past week (fig. 2–3). In this regard, only those coins and tokens included in the top 500 in terms of market capitalization (according to the data of coinmarketcap.com) were considered.
Figure 2. Largest growth in prices over the last week
Tables 1.2 and 1.3 show the possible factors or events that could have influenced the fluctuation in prices for certain cryptocurrencies. Table 1.4 shows the possible factors or events that could have influenced the cryptocurrency market in general.
Table 1.2. Factors or events that could have led to a growth in cryptocurrency prices over the past week
Fairly high growth in prices was also seen last week for the popular cryptocurrencies ZClassic (ZCL) — 90%, Verge (XVG) — 59%, OmiseGO (OMG), Ethereum Classic (ETC) and Litecoin — around 50%. ZClassic is a fork of Zcash, a token that ensures maximum confidentiality. Over the course of two weeks in late December-early January, the price of ZCL skyrocketed by more than a factor of 20, which many believed was the result of currency pumping. The furor surrounding Litecoin can be partially explained by the hard fork that led to the appearance on February 18 of the new cryptocurrency Litecoin Cash (LCC), which is already being traded on YoBit.
The only coins from the Top 100 to show a fall in price over the week were SmartCash (-6.27%) and Kyber Network (-9.39%), while the price of 53 coins and tokens from the Top 500 dropped.
Figure 3. Largest fall in prices over the past week
Table 1.3. Factors or events that could have led to a fall in cryptocurrency prices over the past week
Table 1.4 shows events that took place from February 12–18, 2018, and had an impact on both the prices of the dominant cryptocurrencies and the market in general, with an indication of their nature and type of impact.
Table 1.4. Key events of the week having an influence on cryptocurrency prices, February 12–18, 2018
To analyze trading activity on cryptocurrency exchanges, the ZAK-n Crypto index is calculated (see the Glossary). The values of the ZAK-4 Crypto and ZAK-8 Crypto indices are presented in Tables 1.1, 1.5.a, and 1.5.b. For example, on February 6, 2018, the 24-hour trading volume (Volume 24h) for the four dominant cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Ripple) exceeded $23 billion (Table 1.5.a). The value of the ZAK-4 Crypto equaled 10.3%, which attests to the extremely high liquidity and market dynamism of the dominant cryptocurrencies. The value of the index increased during the downward adjustment of the cryptocurrency market (February 6, 2018), i.e. the daily turnover of cryptocurrencies exceeded 10% of their market capitalization.
Table 1.5.a. Daily ZAK-4 Crypto index calculation (from February 1, 2018, to February 18, 2018)
The 24-hour trading volumes (Volume 24h) for the eight dominant cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Litecoin, Stellar, NEO, and Cardano) equaled $14.9 billion at the end of last week (Table 1.5.b), i.e. 3.7% of their market capitalization. The ZAK-4 Crypto and ZAK-8 Crypto indices are considered in more detail in Tables 1.5.a and 1.5.b.
Table 1.5.b. Daily ZAK-8 Crypto index calculation (continuation of Table 1.5.а)
Table 1.6 gives a list of events, information on which appeared last week, which could impact both the prices of specific cryptocurrencies and the market in general.
Table 1.6. Events that could have an influence on cryptocurrency prices in the future
1.2 Market trends
The weekly cryptocurrency and digital asset market trends from October 1, 2017, to February 18, 2018, are presented as graphs (Fig. 1.1–1.5)*.
Table 1.7. Legends and descriptions of the graphs
Figure 1.1. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization*
Figure 1.1 shows a graph of the weekly cryptocurrency market change from October 1, 2017, to February 18, 2018. Over this period, market capitalization increased from $146.9 billion to $498.3 billion, a growth of 2,715% relative to the start of 2017. Over the first week of January 2018, total market capitalization exceeded $800 billion for the first time, but there was a downward adjustment over the next five weeks (January 8-February 11, 2018), after which the market again began to grow. Over the past week (February 12–18, 2018) capitalization increased by approximately $100 billion, from $396.7 billion to $498.3 billion (as of February 18, 2018, based on the average figures from coinmarketcap.com).
Figure 1.2. Change in market capitalization
Despite the significant growth in cryptocurrency market capitalization in 2017, the market is susceptible to sudden and drastic fluctuations. The highest growth rate in Q4 2017 was around $200 billion, or 54%, during the week of December 17–24, 2017. During the first week of January, market capitalization increased by approximately $250 billion, or 44%, but over the following five weeks decreases of approximately $100 billion, $130 billion, $20 billion, $136 billion, and $46 billion, respectively, were seen. Over the past week the market grew by 26%, or $101.6 billion (with due account of average daily data, see fig. 1.2).
Figure 1.3. Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets
Since the beginning of October, the total number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets considered when calculating market capitalization increased from 1,091 to 1,469. Over the last month, 93 new coins and tokens have appeared on coinmarketcap.com, but it should be noted that some of them are excluded (including due to the closing of the projects).
The number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets increased by 3 over the past week, from 1,466 to 1,469. In this regard, their average capitalization increased from $270.6 million to $339.2 million.
Figures 1.4 and 1.5. Forecast of total cryptocurrency market capitalization
The previous article published last week correctly forecast the switch on the cryptocurrency market to a “bear” market trend. The lengthy fall (five weeks in a row) was replaced by growth. During the period of downward adjustment, the market fell by 50%, but last week average growth equaled 20–25%. This week (February 12–18, 2018) brought more positive than negative news for the cryptocurrency market. No major fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market were seen on February 16, the Chinese New Year. If there are no adverse events next week, the continued recovery of the cryptocurrency market can be expected.
2. General analysis of the ICO market (by week, month).
2.1 Brief overview of ICO market trends
1. ‘Biggest ICO Ever’: Telegram Raises $850M for Its TON Blockchain Development. [source: Coinspeaker]
2. FINMA Publishes ICO Guidelines. [source: Finma.ch]
Finma categorizes ICOs into three types: payment, utility, and asset.
The first category of ICOs includes all cryptocurrencies (coins). For example, all digital currencies such as bitcoin, litecoin, ether, and others are considered coins.
The second category (utility) includes those ICOs, the tokens of which grant access rights to something or allow their holder to purchase services or service units.
The third category (asset) includes so-called security (investment) tokens, which are similar to the shares in a company, i.e. dividends and interest can be paid on them or they grant the right to income from a project.
In particular, if a token does not pass the Howey Test, it should be considered an investment (security) token or a sort of share. In this case, the token issue might fall under the effect of securities legislation (for example, under the purview of the US Securities and Exchange Commission in the USA).
Table 2.1 shows the development trends on the ICO market since 2017. Only popular and/or successfully completed ICOs (i.e. ICOs which managed to collect the minimum declared amount of funds) and/or ICOs listed on exchanges were considered.
Table 2.1. Aggregated trends and performance indicators of past (completed) ICOs1
The data for January and early February were adjusted to account for the appearance of more complete information on past ICOs. Last week (February 12–18, 2018) the amount of funds collected via ICOs equaled $296.3 million. This amount includes the results of the 27 most successful completed ICOs, with the largest amount collected equaling around $39 million (0chain ICO). The average collected funds per project equaled $11 million. More detailed information on the main ICOs, including the 27 completed over the past week, is given in Tables 2.2 and 2.3.
Table 2.2. Amount of funds collected and number of ICOs
Table 2.2 shows that the largest amount of funds was collected via ICOs in December 2017 and January 2018. The highest average collected funds per ICO equaled $33.17 million, and was seen in June 2017.
The data for last week (February 12–18, 2018) may be adjusted as information on the amounts of funds collected by completed ICOs is finalized.
Figure 2.1. Trends in funds collected and number of ICOs since the start of 2017
Table 2.3. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected (February 12–18, 2018)
Table 2.3 shows the top 10 ICOs which were successfully completed during the period February 12–18, 2018. The leader for the week was the 0chain project. 0chian is a zero-cost, superfast, decentralized cloud for DApps for the performance of micro transactions and data storage on any current platform.
Figure 2.2 presents the ten largest ICOs completed last week.
Figure 2.2. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected (February 12–18, 2018)
3. Top ICOs in their categories
The list of top ICOs by category is compiled with due account of the categories of the leading ICOs for the week.
Table 2.4. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Infrastructure category
The leader of the week, the 0chain project, did not make the Top 10 in the category.
At present, all projects from the top 10 in the Infrastructure category have a token performance indicator of 1.65x to 9.78x. Two of the top 10 projects completed their ICOs in January 2018. The EOS exchange listing can be considered one of the most successful ICOs, as this project has a current token price to token sale price ratio of 9.78x. When considering this indicator, it is important to remember that the EOS ICO was completed on July 1, 2017, i.e. the 9.78x growth took place over more seven and a half months. The market capitalization of EOS currently exceeds $6.5 billion.
Figure 2.3. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Infrastructure category
Table 2.5. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Content Management category
At present, the Datawallet project has the largest amount of collected funds in the Content Management category. From among the top 10 projects in the Content Management category, the Lunyr project has the best token performance indicator. Its market capitalization currently exceeds $44 million.
Figure 2.4. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Content Management category
Over the last week (February 12–18, 2018), 27 ICO projects were successfully completed, each of which collected more than $100,000, with a total amount of collected funds of around $300 million. The leader of the past week was the 0chain project ($39 million). The total amount of funds collected by a number of ICOs failed to reach even the $100,000 mark (the information for some projects is still being finalized).
The Glossary is given in Annex 1.
Annex 1 — Glossary
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Cryptocurrency and ICO Market Analysis [February 12–18, 2018] was originally published in ICOBox on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.
- Date of publication:
- Tue, 02/20/2018 - 15:20
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